President Vladimir Putin’s re-election and its implications for Africa

by
Maxwell Boamah Amofa

Introduction

President Vladimir Putin’s re-election is a crucial juncture in global geopolitics with serious implications for Africa. With Africa comprising 54 diverse states, each state maintains its unique relationship with the Russian Federation. While countries like Ghana often associate their alliances with the United States and Western Europe, countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea that have been grappling with military coups and terrorist attacks, increasingly view Russia as a strategic partner, particularly in combating violent extremism. The show of solidarity from some African leaders has been on display as President Vladimir Putin’s received congratulatory messages for his recent re-election for a fifth term. These include President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, President Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso, Colonel Assimi Goïta of Mali among others that have endorsed his re-election irrespective of condemnation of the electoral process by Western leaders as farcical and not transparent. Following form this context, this article examines the evolving dynamics of Russia-Africa relations in light of President Putin’s extended tenure, and explores the strategic shifts and diplomatic implications for African states.

The Evolution of Russia-Africa Relations: From the USSR to Putin’s Era

Russia-Africa relations, historically rooted in the legacy of the Soviet Union (USSR), underscores a complex interplay of ideological alignment, strategic interests, and diplomatic overtures. The USSR thus has a legacy of educational, security, and technological cooperation with African states, as exemplified by an institution like the Patrice Lumumba University (now called the People’s Friendship University), in Moscow, which is being advanced by contemporary Russo-African engagements. Suffice to state that the demise of the USSR heralded a period of uncertainty, with Russia’s emergence under President Boris Yeltsin necessitating some strategic shifts in terms of international diplomacy. These shifts have continued to evolve and this prompts a reassessment of its continuous role in Africa with the emergence of President Putin.

Russia-Africa Security Partnerships and Geopolitical Shifts

In recent times, the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war have been felt in Africa. There are reports of its spillover into Sudan where Russian forces are battling Ukrainian soldiers. Amid growing insecurity and economic challenges in Africa that have been exacerbated by terrorism and political instability, Russia has also become a strategic partner for several African states. For example, countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea grappling with jihadist insurrections and perceived Western hegemony, view Russia as a valuable ally in combating extremism and safeguarding national sovereignty. The withdrawal of Western military forces, notably those of France and United States, from countries like Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali have led to more prominence for the Russian Private Military Company, Wagner group and Russia’s Military Industrial Complex within the security framework of these states.

Russia’s arms trade with Egypt has been particularly significant, with the two countries signing a $3.5 billion arms deal in 2018. This agreement encompassed the sale of advanced fighter jets, helicopters, and air defense systems to Egypt, bolstering its military capabilities. Additionally, the Russian Federation has supplied military equipment, including fighter jets and weapons systems, to Sudan. In 2017, Sudan entered into a deal with Russia to establish a naval base on the Red Sea coast, indicative of the deepening military cooperation between the two States. Russian military advisors have been providing training and assistance to the armed forces of Burkina Faso and Sudan, enhancing their military capabilities and operational effectiveness.
These developments underscore a shift in the geopolitical landscape, with Russia positioning itself as a credible alternative to Western actors. Amidst these geopolitical shifts, one of the major outcomes of the Russia-Africa summit hosted by Russia in July 2023 was President Putin’s advocacy for Africa’s permanent representation in the United Nations Security Council. A position that has equally been echoed by leaders from the European Union as well as the United States of America.

Beyond Security Cooperation : Russia’s Economic and Educational Engagement in Africa

Beyond security cooperation, Russia’s engagement with African countries extends to economic collaboration, particularly focused on nuclear energy, resource extraction, and investment opportunities. Russia has actively pursued nuclear cooperation with Egypt, South Africa, and Burkina Faso, including plans to construct nuclear power plants in Burkina Faso and Egypt. Agreements for the construction of these nuclear plants were signed in 2023 and 2015, respectively. In 2014, Russia and South Africa inked an intergovernmental agreement on strategic partnership in nuclear energy, laying the groundwork for potential collaboration in building nuclear power facilities.

Reports from the 2023 Russia- Africa summit indicates educational collaborations with a substantial increase in Russian scholarships for African students. As of March 2024, over 35,000 African students currently study in Russia, with more than 6,000 of them on the Russian government scholarships. Additionally, Russia has also relaxed its immigration policies and citizenship requirements to facilitate greater educational and cultural exchanges. Like other global powers, Russia is leveraging soft power instruments, including educational scholarships and cultural exchanges, to deepen its influence in Africa. The expansion of scholarships for African students, coupled with relaxed immigration policies, reflects Russia’s strategic vision of nurturing human capital and fostering long-term diplomatic ties.

Implications of Vladimir Putin’s re-election for Africa

One of Russia’s foremost objectives is to safeguard its sovereignty and uphold its status as a superpower while fostering effective cooperation with the global community. Central to achieving this goal is preventing strategic defeat by the Western bloc of nations and realizing Russia’s objectives, particularly in what has been broadly described as the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Despite facing over 5000 sanctions as a consequence of its conflict with Ukraine, Russia has responded by innovation to circumvent these measures, thus ensuring its sovereignty remains intact. For instance, the full implementation of MIR cards to replace Visa and Mastercards, along with the adoption of the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), a Russian financial system similar to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, has enabled Russia to conduct international payments among over 23 countries without reliance on the Western-led SWIFT system.

A February 2024 briefing from the European Parliament revealed that Russia currently ranks as Africa’s 15th largest trade partner, with trade between Russia and Africa amounting to over 1.4 billion euros in 2022. The combined 27 EU countries lead as Africa’s largest trading partner, followed by China, with the United States ranking fourth and the United Kingdom eighth. Consequently, bolstering economic ties with Africa not only promotes the economic development of the Russian Federation but also poses a strategic challenge to the Western bloc, including the United States, EU member states, and the United Kingdom. In April 2023, Reuters reported that Russia increased gasoline exports to Africa by 50% as it explored new trade routes following EU sanctions on Russian oil. Ship tracking data revealed direct shipments to Nigeria, Tunisia, and Libya.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), trade revenue between Russia and African countries nearly doubled from $9.9 billion in 2013 to $17.7 billion by 2021. Grain exports are particularly significant, with nearly 30% of Africa’s grain supplies originating from Russia. Reuters reported that Russia supplied 50,000 tonnes of grain each to Somalia and the Central African Republic, and 25,000 tonnes each to Mali, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, and Eritrea. Given the substantial increase in economic cooperation between Russia and African countries, one could anticipate the introduction of the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) in Africa to facilitate efficient financial transactions between African states and the Russian Federation.

In terms of security, Russia accounts for approximately 11% of the international arms trade, with the United States leading at 42%, according to Statista. The conflict in Ukraine has provided Russia with an opportunity to modernize its military infrastructure, enhancing the effectiveness of its weapon systems and platforms. The adoption of the Kindzhal hypersonic weapon system, the FAB 1500 glide bomb, and the new generation S500 defense system are evidence of this. The effectiveness of these weapons in the Ukrainian conflict will enhance Russia’s reputation in the arms trade and potentially increase its exports, particularly to countries combating violent extremism in Africa, such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Undoubtedly, such motivations may drive Russia to pursue what President Vladimir Putin has termed as the “De-Nazification and De-Militarization of Ukraine” until its objectives are fully realized.

Conclusion

In conclusion, President Vladimir Putin’s re-election heralds a new chapter in Russia-Africa relations, characterized by strategic recalibrations and evolving geopolitical dynamics. As Africa navigates the complexities of Russo-Western rivalry, pragmatic considerations underscore the imperative of diversifying diplomatic engagements, while safeguarding national interests. Whether Putin’s vision of revitalizing USSR-era relations with African countries materializes remains contingent upon sustained efforts and geopolitical exigencies. In the interim, African states ought to exercise cautious diplomacy, mindful of the shifting contours of global power dynamics.

Maxwell Boamah Amofa is currently doing his graduate studies in International Human Rights and Humanitarian Law at the European University in Viadrina, Germany. He is also interning at The West African Transitional Justice Centre.

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