by
Zoe Nneka Ejiofor
On September 5, Guinea underwent a military coup, led by the head of the country’s military special forces, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya. This resulted in the capture of the country’s president, Mr Alpha Condé, and the dissolution of the Guinean government and constitution. The military are now ruling the country. This is the West African country’s third coup in less than forty years, with the first taking place in April 1984
Mr Condé came to power in 2010, becoming the country’s first democratically elected president. He was a veteran opposition leader, and by profession a human rights assistant professor at Sorbonne while exiled in France. So, it could be said that Guineans were right to hope and believe that Condé would bring an end to decades of corrupt dictatorship in the country. Yet, Condé’s presidency has been marred with several violations of democratic tenets, with him “kill[ing] and completely refus[ing] any political dialogue with the opposition.”[1] He secured a third presidential term last October in a violently disputed election following a highly controversial constitutional change in March 2020. The constitutional change had served the purpose of extending the length of presidential terms. This change thus meant that Condé could potentially govern for an additional 12 years. Mass protests were sparked as a fallout, during which dozens were killed and hundreds arrested- including opposition leaders. These circumstances led some, such as Alioune Tine, an independent human rights expert for the UN, to believe, , that “a popular uprising or a coup [was] inevitable
The coup has been criticised by the international community, including major powers like Russia and the United States. Also, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) reacted by threatening sanctions on Guinea if the military junta does not restore constitutional order. Guinea has since been suspended from ECOWAS, and the bloc has also threatened to impose more economic sanctions. Furthermore, the Chairman of the African Union (AU)- His Excellency Felix Tshisekedi, and the head of its executive body, His Excellency Moussa Faki Mahamat, have also decried the coup, calling for Condé to be released. Additionally, the AU has said that it would take “appropriate measures”[3] in response to the coup.
With these antecedents, one important question that is on the mind of many is: How can Guinea be returned to democratic rule? How can transitional justice be ensured?. Guinea’s suspension from ECOWAS and the threat of economic sanctions, as well as other similar actions, could help persuade the country to return to democratic rule in no distant time. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on the global market with the export of minerals, such as bauxite and gold. Mining generates approximately 90% of Guinea’s export revenue and roughly 25% of its gross domestic product.[5] So, any sanctions that could affect Guinea’s mining capacity, for example, would most likely cripple its transborder revenue. As at 2020, Guinea was the world’s second largest producer of bauxite.[6] Bauxite remains an extremely important mineral, which serves as the raw material of aluminium, extensively used in the production of electronics, construction, vehicles and day-to-day essential products like utensils and cosmetics. Concerns have already been raised by investors in the Guinean bauxite industry about how the coup itself could disrupt bauxite production.[7] However, whether ECOWAS and AU would go to such measures remains to be seen.
Even if sanctions were placed on Guinea, those alone would not return it to democratic rule. The issues facing Guinea currently are multi-faceted, and these need to be discussed between bodies such as To be able to really understand how and why Guinea is in this state and prevent such from reoccurring. As Jesper Bjarnesen, senior researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute, said in an interview discussing Guinea’s current state, “there is only so much that can be gained from isolating a military regime.”[8] Although North Korea is not a military regime, one only needs to look there to see the consequences of isolating countries that are politically unstable. Furthermore, as said by Prof Kwesi Aning, Director of Research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Center, in a recent interview on Guinea’s current state, “Guinea did not just happen, it was a gradual and incremental erosion of personal freedoms, constitutional rights and undermining of constitutional processes.”[9] To aid transitional justice in the country, heads of bodies such as ECOWAS and AU need to return all stakeholders to the dialogue table to create a legitimate basis for sustainable transitions. These bodies need to be more proactive by embracing preventive diplomacy, since their redundance in allowing Mr Condé to controversially change the constitution and run for a third term, could be associated with the recent coup d’etat and the hitherto political instability in the country. The regional bodies (ECOWAS and the AU) also need to find a sustainable solution to the incursion of the military in the political landscape of the continent and subregion, especially as Guinea’s military coup is the third coup in West Africa within 5 months. The longer Guinea remains under military rule, the more it adds to the climate of political instability in the West African subregion.
Talks about how Guinea will transition to constitutionally governed political order began on September 14 and lasted for a week, with inputs from political, religious and business leaders. The hope for many is that these talks will mark the beginning of a new Guinea, that embraces democracy and respects human rights. However, whether such will actually happen remains speculative in the immediate term. It has been argued by Dansa Kourouma, President of the National Council of Civil Society Organisations (CNOSCG), that Guineans have been “too hopeful.”[10] If one goes by what Doumbouya has said though, which is that Guinea is “no longer going to entrust politics to one man, [instead we are] going to entrust politics to the people”[11]; there will be a change from Guinea’s previous mode of government. One can only hope that this is a change for the better.
[1] Alioune Tine, founder of the AfrikaJom Center think-tank per https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/6/toppled-alpha-conde-failed-to-live-up-to-his-promises-in-guinea (accessed 09/09/2021).
[2] Ibid.
[3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/6/toppled-alpha-conde-failed-to-live-up-to-his-promises-in-guinea (accessed 10/09/2021).
[5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-06/aluminum-climbs-to-10-year-high-after-coup-attempt-in-guinea (accessed 10/09/2021)
[6] https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-bauxite-alumina.pdf (accessed 10/09/2021)
[7] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/6/reports-of-guinea-coup-send-aluminum-prices-to-decade-high (accessed 10/09/2021)
[8] https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/9/6/whats-next-for-guinea-after-the (accessed 08/09/2021) 18:58.
[9] Ibid (accessed 08/09/2021) 17:42.
[10] Guinea holds talks in Conakry to prepare transition back to civilian rule (france24.com) (accessed 18/09/2021)
[11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/6/guinea-coup-military-arrest-president-dissolve-government (accessed 09/09/2021).
Zoe is an intern at the West African Transitional Justice Centre (WATJCentre) and currently studying for her Masters in Law at the University of Manchester