Preamble
The recent regime change in South Africa, a country which practices constitutional democracy across the national, provincial and local tiers of government (each with its own executive and legislative arm; alongside and independent judiciary), generated a lot of interests based on the perceived need for a political change; which some commentators consider as necessary in reversing the dwindling economic fortunes of the country. Some proponents of the political shift critiqued the implementation of economic policies promoting local content, which though laudable for generating and sustaining investments through partnerships between local and foreign investors, have restricted economic freedom due to several bureaucratic bottlenecks that impede the transborder flow of capital. Beyond this, there have also been claims about the shrinking civic space dating back to 2019, when the streets were militarised during COVID-19 lockdown. This subsequently paved the way for further restrictions on civil society organisations that are increasingly under scrutiny for espionage. These indications led many to forecast that it was unlikely for the African National Congress (ANC) to win majority of the parliamentary seats, which would probably guarantee the constitution of the executive arm of government. The intricacies of the South African elections thus formed the focus of discussions for the June 22, 2024 edition of the Africanist Scholars Forum, where we examined the implications of the changing dynamics of South African politics for the future of the country.
Observations
We recognize that South Africa’s democratic freedom is a product of centuries of colonial resistance that birthed the dismantling of structures of apartheid. It was founded on the principles of inclusivity for creating a rainbow nation as propagated in the inauguration speech of May 10, 1994 while President Nelson Mandela assumed the leadership of the nation after he contested the elections under the ANC. The ANC is a foundational member of the Former Liberation Movements of Southern Africa (FLMSA) along with Mozambique’s FRELIMO, Angola’s MPLA, Namibia’s SWAPO, Tanzania’s Chama Cha Mapinduzi and Zimbabwe’s ZAPU and ZANU-PF, with Botswana Democratic Party completing the membership in 2019. These parties dominate the politics of their respective nations by leveraging the history of their contributions to the liberation struggles. However, in the past two decades, the ANC has witnessed reduction in its majority votes at the National Assembly from 69% in 1994 to 57.5% in 2019 and 40.2% during the February 2024 elections. While the party promotes non-tolerance of racism and other discriminatory practices along with its welfarist policies, it has been criticized in recent times due to poor management of public infrastructure, increasing public debt, high unemployment rate (with the World Bank estimating 55.5% of the population to be living below the upper poverty line), endemic inequality and an epileptic energy sector that led President Cyril Ramaphosa to declare a ‘State of National Disaster’ in February 2023. There is also a major challenge with gender-based violence, with the frequency of its occurrence at the country’s all-time high during the first quarter of 2024. This menace also constitutes a major challenge to the political and economic freedom of women, worsening the impacts of some cultural restrictions that impede the ability of women towards self-actualisation. All these contribute to the diminishing support for the ANC.
By winning 40.2% of the votes cast, the ANC was able to retain 159 of 400 available seats at the National Assembly, with the official opposition party, Democratic Alliance (DA), coming next by winning 87 seats (21.81%). The DA is an offshoot of the liberal Progressive Party that was formed in 1959 with a strong base in the Western Cape Province. The uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) has 58 seats (14.5%), while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) occupy 39 seats (9.75%) to complete the list of the top four political parties at the parliament. While President Cyril Ramaphosa admonished a positive interpretation of the election results as reflective of a functional and strong democratic process in South Africa, the inability of the ANC to occupy the required majority parliamentary seats for electing a president necessitated the need for a coalition to make up the deficits. With former President Jacob Zuma-led MK unwilling to collaborate with the ANC, the party settled for a coalition with the John Steenhuisen-led DA, alongside eight other parties to include the Inkatha Freedom Party, Patriotic Alliance, GOOD party, Pan Africanist Congress of Azania, the Freedom Front Plus, United Democratic Movement and the Rise Mzansi. This coalition presently constitutes the majority by holding 258 seats in the parliament.
We also note observations of voter apathy during the 2024 election, which recorded the lowest turnout in the country’s post-Apartheid history. There were only about 16.2 million votes (58.7%) recorded from over 27 million registered voters. This portends the need to revisit the trust of South Africans in the electoral process. More so, the MK, which has a strong support base in the Kwazulu-Natal Province, requested for a delay in the announcement of results in order to argue for a recount, and subsequently a revote. This resulted from allegations of electoral malpractices, especially as the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) received over 500 objections to the process by the evening of June 1, two days after the election. However, the MK’s advocacy for the revision of the constitution to restore the relevance of traditional institutions in the governance architecture of the country is quite instructive as an effective Traditional Leadership Policy could help strengthen the country’s electoral process.
Recommendations
The change in voting pattern during South Africa’s elections reflects that the choice of the electorate is evolving from sentiments based on liberation narratives that hitherto guaranteed the successes of some dominant political parties during national elections. Political actors should thus evolve from the consideration of possessing the intrinsic right to rule by embracing the philosophy that victories at the polls are dependent on the consent of the governed. Every stakeholder in the electoral process must thus strive to protect the integrity of the results by ensuring that they truly represent the will of the people. This is important in managing the challenges of voter apathy during elections
With the Government of National Unity in place, it is important that the coalition remains synergized by accommodating the interests of the constitutive political parties. This could be facilitated through fairly distributed appointments into the cabinet. Such representation would preclude unwarranted distractions; and allow the new government to focus on revamping the economy and implementing developmental project that will boost the fortunes of the nation and its citizens.
It is also important that debates around decolonisation include restructuring political architectures of different African nations to accommodate traditional institutions. Though traditional leaders remain important in providing leadership for their people, their authority is often subjected to manipulations that serve the selfish interests of state actors legally empowered to undermine them. It is thus important to align legal provisions with traditional customs and norms in recognising, respecting and supporting traditional leaders in the governance of the people.